By Andrea Lamarche
May 1-2, 2025
Jean Monnet Chair and Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs Mark Copelovitch brought together a distinguished group of scholars from the U.S. and Europe for the annual symposium of the Jean Monnet European Union Center for Excellence on Populism and the Global Economy. The May event focused on a timely and pressing question: How should we understand Europe’s evolving role in the global order amidst rising uncertainty, especially of the last three months?
Copelovitch opened the event with a compelling statement that set the tone: we are living through a pivotal moment. The international order is undergoing dramatic changes marked by the decline of post-WWII alliances, the weakening of the liberal international order, and a global shift away from established norms. The resurgence of war on the European continent, the rise of radical right-wing parties, and a protectionist U.S. administration seemingly hostile to traditional allies are all symptoms of a world in transition.
So how should Europe Union (EU) respond? What lies ahead for U.S.–EU relations? These were the central questions tackled by a panel of leading experts, who offered valuable perspectives on the challenges and opportunities facing the European Union.
How Radical Right Parties Are Reshaping Europe
The first panel, featuring Stephanie Walter, Florian Foos, and Ethan Van Der Wilden, delved into the growing influence of radical right parties across EU member states.
Stephanie Walter, Professor of International Relations at the University of Zurich, explored the phenomenon of political contagion, where the electoral success of right-wing populists in one country can legitimize and fuel similar movements elsewhere in Europe. However, she also pointed out a counter-trend: the failure of these parties when in government can serve as a cautionary tale, potentially deterring voters in other countries. Ethan Van Der Wilden, PhD candidate in Political Science at the UW-Madison, examined how shifting social norms and nostalgia have contributed to the normalization of once-stigmatized radical right parties. He argued that the decline of post-WWII taboos has led to a “de-complexed” vote for the far right, an increasingly unashamed expression of support for views recently concerned retrograde.
Florian Foos, Professor in the Department of Government at the London School of Economics, turned the discussion to social media, questioning whether digital platforms have accelerated this normalization process. He warned of the dangers posed by the rollback of moderation policies on platforms like Facebook and X which allow misinformation to spread unchecked. Given the global nature of these companies and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, effective regulation remains elusive.
This panel tackled a critical internal challenge for the European Union, highlighting how deeply the populist wave is reshaping European politics.
Tariffs, Trade War, and the Dollar Dilemma: Europe in the New Economic Order
The second panel, featuring UW–Madison professors Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch, shifted the focus to external economic challenges, specifically the impact of the global trade war and protectionist U.S. policies on Europe.
Menzie Chinn provided a step-by-step breakdown of Trump-era tariff policies, noting that tariffs are now at their highest level since the 1930s. He explained that while countries like Mexico and Canada are most directly affected, the broader implications, such as inflation and retaliatory tariffs, pose serious risks for the U.S. economy. Tariffs are not improving the trade balance, and rising interest rates may only serve to weaken the dollar. Perhaps most concerning, Chinn argued, is the erosion of global confidence in U.S. economic policy and dollar-backed assets.
Mark Copelovitch offered a counterpoint, expressing less concern about the dollar’s long-term dominance. While he acknowledged Trump’s unpredictability, he emphasized the lack of viable alternatives. China lacks robust private financial markets, and the Euro suffers from a scarcity of safe assets. Copelovitch explained that for the Euro to challenge the dollar, the European Union would need a “true Hamiltonian moment”, a sweeping issuance of common debt and structural reforms that remain politically difficult and unlikely to happen.
Beyond tariffs, the panel highlighted how the U.S., despite a strong COVID-19 recovery, has grown increasingly isolated in global trade negotiations in the past decade. In contrast, the European Union has signed trade agreements around the world and has taken on a leadership role in shaping modern trade rules. Copelovitch even floated the provocative idea of Canadian EU membership, not as a literal proposal, but to underscore how closely aligned Canada and the European Union have become on global trade, perhaps more so than the traditional U.S.–EU partnership.
Between Allies and Adversaries: Europe’s Foreign Policy in an Unstable World
The final panel addressed the EU’s foreign policy and its increasingly complex relationship with the United States. Panelists Laura von Daniels and Stephanie Hofmann (both based in Germany), along with American scholar Jon Pevehouse, examined the European Union’s struggle to define a coherent global strategy.
Von Daniels and Hofmann both emphasized the growing number of urgent issues competing for attention at the EU level, from the war in Ukraine and broader security concerns to economic reforms and internal political challenges. These overlapping crises are straining the EU’s capacity for unified action, especially given that much of its policy implementation still occurs at the member-state level.
The war in Ukraine has forced the European Union to reconsider its long-held assumptions about global order and security. NATO’ seems fragile, and the liberal international order appears increasingly obsolete. While the European Union has yet to define a new security doctrine, a growing consensus suggests that the United States can no longer be seen as a reliable ally. Jon Pevehouse stressed the gravity of this shift. Whether the U.S. is viewed as a rival or merely an unwilling partner, it is clearly no longer a dependable friend.
Progress within the European Union remains incremental and slow, but as Hofmann and von Daniels pointed out, this is partly due to the diverse and overlapping crises the Union faces. Responding effectively will require a level of coordination and integration that surpasses anything seen in the EU’s history. Still, history shows that the European Union often grows stronger in times of crisis, and this, perhaps, is the most important message to take away from the symposium.
Europe at a Crossroads: What Comes Next?
The symposium offered a rich and nuanced discussion of the multifaceted challenges confronting Europe today. From internal populist pressures to external trade shocks and geopolitical instability, the European Union faces an unprecedented test of its unity and adaptability.
Yet the event ended on a hopeful note. As history teaches us, Europe’s integration has often accelerated in moments of crisis. While the future remains uncertain, the insights shared by these expert panelists help us better understand how to navigate the road ahead.
Hang in there, history is only written after it happens.
This conference was made possible by grants from the support of the Erasmus + Program of the European Union through our Jean Monnet European Union Center of Excellence for Populism and the Global Economy, and the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) through its support of UW-Madison through the Center for German & European Studies, now in its 28th year.